Wuhan novel coronavirus 2020

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... if nothing was done.

Google sheets has an extrapolation function for exponential growth based on a limited amount of data.

The results are alarming, but it is to be hoped that action to inhibit the spread of the virus will flatten out the curve. Seems quite likely at the moment that the damage to global supply chains caused by China's almost complete shutdown may cause more harm than the virus itself. Left unchecked, the result would be catastrophic.



The kink in the graph may be a good sign. The red curve is where the exponential function says it should be, based on the recent data. The blue is based on date from the beginning of the reported cases. It shows where cases would be if no intervention had taken place and the virus had proceeded unchecked.

The curve flattening out is either because intervention is reducing the rate of infection, or because the Chinese Communist Party's internal police are frightening people into not giving true numbers... we'll know in a few weeks, regardless of what the Chinese Communist Party does.



If the numbers are accurate the rate of infection spreading will slow down and possibly cease. If the Chinese Communist Party is suppressing the true picture, I guess we'll know when factories don't re-open and China moves towards a deep economic recession.



Are things getting better? The continuing rise in deaths after the 18th February is due to the extrapolation function. It's not reality.
If deaths continue at a much lower rate or drop to zero, maybe this is the beginning of the end for Covid 19.


Inspired by The Guardian. Coronavirus crisis: Raab urges Britons to leave China

The first advice from a member of Johnson's government I think was worth the energy cost of transmitting...

Data from: Worldometers: Coronavirus Cases

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown-of-coronavirus-risk-by-demographic-factors/




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