Warthog syndrome
Neil Ferguson had better be prepared. 20,000 deaths, not 510,000.
Just like Y2K really.
Back in the '90s, it became clear that computer systems built in the 1980s and before, and never expected to be in use for so long, would be unable to function. Payroll systems would collapse, invoices go unpaid, programmable microcontrollers in dams, power stations, chemical plants go awry.
Almost none of this happened. After the year passed peacefully, the siren voices began. Look at all those highly paid computer consultants we paid through the nose for the Y2K work they said.
Like COVID-19, we'll never know what would have happened if we ignored Y2K. We chose not to run the experiment, see what happened if large numbers of computer systems failed at the same time.
(I spotted one for instance myself. I was engaged on a team to rejig an early '90s system for an asset manager. A few weeks in I told them I'd run an experiment myself and found that on Tuesday the 29th February 2000 they would have been unable to trade. Their existing strategy, to have us tweak existing systems to work into the new century was flawed, on that one day they could've lost millions, unable to trade. They thanked me and changed strategy to a more significant upgrade.}
I think the government decided to run an experiment in early March 2020. The virus had got out of control through early inaction. Some advisers thought the best action might be to achieve herd immunity, and for some weeks the UK did little to stop the spread.
Thank you, Neil Ferguson and team.
Were it not for your paper, we might have found out that the true number of deaths was 510,000. Thankfully on 16th March, they decided to stop the experiment and by the 23rd, the whole country was locked down. To anyone who says "There were only 20,000 deaths, what was all the fuss about?", you can say only that I hope you lost no-one important to you.
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