2020, the year everything got worse?

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This paper from Imperial College is what caused the government to change its mind yesterday.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

The worst case, if nothing was done.



If we take all the measures currently, the model suggests the outbreak will follow the blue line.



It still means we need over 60,000 critical care beds at the Spring peak of the crisis. (Better not even look at autumn, my guess is that's a problem to tackle later.

Current UK government advice measures to avoid spreading Covid-19: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-guidance-on-social-distancing-and-for-vulnerable-people/guidance-on-social-distancing-for-everyone-in-the-uk-and-protecting-older-people-and-vulnerable-adults

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