Covid-19 spreads in the United Kingdom

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I've been recording published data on Covid-19 and plotting it on some charts.




From 26th February UK infections have jumped way ahead of initial rates of increase. It may be that's due to a ramp-up in testing around that date.



It's to be hoped that rate of growth does not continue. The curve should start to become less steep if the rate of infection decreases in response to isolation measures.

In the chart above the red line is the original data beginning from 26th February 2020 and extrapolated into the future. The blue line is the same data, but extrapolated from 29th March 2020, when the lockdown policy had begun to take effect.

If the mortality rate is 1%, that's more than 600,000 deaths by the end of April. 

Current UK government advice on measures to restrict the virus's spread:

Guidance

The numbers for Scotland plotted on a chart and projected out towards the end of April. No sign of disruption of the virus's spread yet (as of 22/3/2020).

 The kink in the curve occurs on the last day real data was entered. The future is plotted assuming exponential growth based on the data so far. The real data looks more and more like a straight line. Which is a good thing. (12/4/2020)

Hopefully, we'll soon see the curve start to head downwards. At which point the exponential growth function becomes a bit useless.

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