Covid-19 mortality

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I hesitated to put these up because I kind of didn't want to scare people.

Information is power.

See below charts plotted from published data on mortality, then extrapolated out to the middle of April.

Note that these charts use data derived from Google Sheet's GROWTH function. It's doing extrapolation of exponential growth. The extrapolation is very dependent on the amount of data gathered and may be affected dramatically by recent changes in the way the data is collected.
You should not read this as an absolute prediction of the number of deaths on a certain date, it's a projection of the pattern based on the data so far. Looking at the current projections, hopefully, none of those numbers will become real.

World




United Kingdom

As things stand, based on the public data, this shows more deaths by the middle of April in the UK than have occurred across the world by then. Hopefully, the chart will become more rational as isolation measures start to take effect and the rate of infection in the UK comes down, closer to the global rate.


Scotland


Note that the first deaths in Scotland only occurred a few days ago, so the limited data may make the projection even more unreliable.

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